Qualification · Qualification 81

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

489.48 – 326.17

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

320 – 315

Prediction correct · off by 90.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 694.8 ±9.3

4795Eastbots

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 141.28Rank 17Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8808SWLA Tech Pirates

Season APEX 223.6Event APEX 136.45Rank 58Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 211.75Rank 30Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 607.4 ±8.7

4362Gems

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 181.55Rank 36Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 19.43Rank 59Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

54622Paw Robotics

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 125.19Rank 46Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4795, 8808, 68

/ 100 compat

Projected

489.5 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 4795, 8808, 68

Auto

72.5 15%

Teleop

289.2 60%

Endgame

122.3 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4362, 9644, 5462

/ 100 compat

Projected

326.2 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 4362, 9644, 5462

Auto

59.3 18%

Teleop

191.5 58%

Endgame

81.7 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score489.5pts

Blue projected score326.2pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 163.3
Score range: 257–558
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 635 vs event baseline 384.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

694.8Season APEX607.4

72.5Auto59.3

289.2Teleop191.5

122.3Endgame81.7

126Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	64
teleop	196	195
endgame	67	56
foul	0	0
total	320	315

Result

Final score

320 – 315

Prediction correct · off by 90.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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