Qualification · Qualification 78

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

378.51 – 154.61

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

454 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 68.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 640.6 ±10.4

3419RoHawks

Season APEX 153.4Event APEX 52.29Rank 67Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2846FireBears

Season APEX 210Event APEX 132.38Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2905Sultans of Turkiye

Season APEX 277.2Event APEX 193.84Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 548.4 ±12.2

8158Bosphorus Robotics

Season APEX 156.9Event APEX -8.9Rank 73Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10604Demirören Robotics

Season APEX 124.4Event APEX 24.09Rank 74Record 0-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1671Buchanan Bird Brains

Season APEX 267.1Event APEX 139.42Rank 37Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3419, 2846, 2905

/ 100 compat

Projected

378.5 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 3419, 2846, 2905

Auto

77.7 20%

Teleop

179.0 47%

Endgame

124.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8158, 10604, 1671

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.6 pts

~0.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 8158, 10604, 1671

Auto

22.5 15%

Teleop

51.5 33%

Endgame

80.5 52%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.51 · Blue 0.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score378.5pts

Blue projected score154.6pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 223.9
Score range: 85–449
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 548 vs event baseline 387.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

640.6Season APEX548.4

77.7Auto22.5

179Teleop51.5

124.2Endgame80.5

150Consistency132

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	120	15
teleop	280	68
endgame	54	1
foul	0	10
total	454	94

Result

Final score

454 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 68.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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