Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

326.69 – 477.8

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

430 – 582

Prediction correct · off by 103.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 669.8 ±9.3

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 115.34Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 42.34Rank 66Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7426PAIR OF DICE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 285Event APEX 169.01Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 700.8 ±9.9

263Aftershock

Season APEX 175.6Event APEX 114.41Rank 43Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3707TechnoDogs

Season APEX 240.7Event APEX 176.95Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 186.44Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3637, 7594, 7426

/ 100 compat

Projected

326.7 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 3637, 7594, 7426

Auto

50.2 16%

Teleop

155.6 48%

Endgame

115.9 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 263, 3707, 4476

/ 100 compat

Projected

477.8 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 263, 3707, 4476

Auto

53.9 12%

Teleop

245.6 53%

Endgame

167.4 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.87 · Blue 2.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score326.7pts

Blue projected score477.8pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -151.1
Score range: 258–547
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1012 vs event baseline 385.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

669.8Season APEX700.8

50.2Auto53.9

155.6Teleop245.6

115.9Endgame167.4

131Consistency175

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	65
teleop	217	352
endgame	157	165
foul	0	0
total	430	582

Result

Final score

430 – 582

Prediction correct · off by 103.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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