Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

387.17 – 443.38

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

375 – 415

Prediction correct · off by 20.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 653.2 ±9.8

3245Ravens

Season APEX 194Event APEX 62.86Rank 54Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6090Wayland Wildcats

A+

Season APEX 298.7Event APEX 240.22Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3277ProDigi

Season APEX 160.5Event APEX 84.09Rank 50Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 648.3 ±9.9

10101Critical Hit

Season APEX 156.1Event APEX 22.72Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 211.57Rank 20Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2974Walton Robotics

Season APEX 230.2Event APEX 209.09Rank 23Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3245, 6090, 3277

/ 100 compat

Projected

387.2 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 3245, 6090, 3277

Auto

57.3 15%

Teleop

198.2 51%

Endgame

130.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10101, 2200, 2974

/ 100 compat

Projected

443.4 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 10101, 2200, 2974

Auto

67.2 16%

Teleop

266.3 64%

Endgame

84.4 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.32 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score387.2pts

Blue projected score443.4pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -56.2
Score range: 317–513
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 790 vs event baseline 388.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

653.2Season APEX648.3

57.3Auto67.2

198.2Teleop266.3

130.2Endgame84.4

106Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	91	103
teleop	141	234
endgame	123	73
foul	20	5
total	375	415

Result

Final score

375 – 415

Prediction correct · off by 20.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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