Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

633.93 – 291.71

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

420 – 408

Prediction correct · off by 165.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 767.9 ±8.7

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 214.87Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1771North Gwinnett Robotics

Season APEX 276.3Event APEX 218.35Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4362Gems

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 200.71Rank 36Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 607.2 ±9.3

4122Ossining OBOTS

Season APEX 233.2Event APEX 92.69Rank 49Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

54622Paw Robotics

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 118.13Rank 46Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7890SeQuEnCe

Season APEX 178.1Event APEX 80.89Rank 52Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 686, 1771, 4362

/ 100 compat

Projected

633.9 pts

~2.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 686, 1771, 4362

Auto

89.4 14%

Teleop

373.6 59%

Endgame

169.9 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4122, 5462, 7890

/ 100 compat

Projected

291.7 pts

~0.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 4122, 5462, 7890

Auto

47.2 16%

Teleop

118.0 41%

Endgame

124.1 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.75 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score633.9pts

Blue projected score291.7pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 342.2
Score range: 222–704
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 828 vs event baseline 387.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

767.9Season APEX607.2

89.4Auto47.2

373.6Teleop118

169.9Endgame124.1

146Consistency147

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	106	70
teleop	231	180
endgame	68	158
foul	15	0
total	420	408

Result

Final score

420 – 408

Prediction correct · off by 165.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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