Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

275.12 – 278.04

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

438 – 333

Prediction missed · off by 108.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 599.7 ±9.3

8020CyberpunK

Season APEX 157.5Event APEX 81.4Rank 55Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4089Stealth Robotics

Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 193.47Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 0.25Rank 59Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 601.9 ±9.4

6002ZooBOTix

Season APEX 267.3Event APEX 184.68Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2169KING TeC

Season APEX 117Event APEX 24.05Rank 71Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6989KAISER

Season APEX 217.6Event APEX 69.31Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8020, 4089, 9644

/ 100 compat

Projected

275.1 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 8020, 4089, 9644

Auto

80.8 29%

Teleop

187.8 68%

Endgame

8.8 3%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6002, 2169, 6989

/ 100 compat

Projected

278 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 6002, 2169, 6989

Auto

92.9 33%

Teleop

140.8 50%

Endgame

46.6 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score275.1pts

Blue projected score278pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.9
Score range: 205–348
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 771 vs event baseline 389.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

599.7Season APEX601.9

80.8Auto92.9

187.8Teleop140.8

8.8Endgame46.6

134Consistency174

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	95	84
teleop	230	183
endgame	93	66
foul	20	0
total	438	333

Result

Final score

438 – 333

Prediction missed · off by 108.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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