Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

412.31 – 387.11

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

334 – 434

Prediction missed · off by 62.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 671.7 ±9.3

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 158.48Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4905Andromeda One

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 140.74Rank 18Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 113.09Rank 22Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 772.2 ±15.5

7457suPURDUEper Robotics

Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 194.13Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7039❌⭕

Provisional

Season APEX 307.7Event APEX 173.24Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7717Steam Punks

Season APEX 190.2Event APEX 19.74Rank 57Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4907, 4905, 4270

/ 100 compat

Projected

412.3 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 4907, 4905, 4270

Auto

80.2 20%

Teleop

220.6 55%

Endgame

97.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 7457, 7039, 7717

/ 100 compat

Projected

387.1 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 7457, 7039, 7717

Auto

74.7 20%

Teleop

223.9 61%

Endgame

70.6 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score412.3pts

Blue projected score387.1pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.2
Score range: 317–482
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 768 vs event baseline 388.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

671.7Season APEX772.2

80.2Auto74.7

220.6Teleop223.9

97.1Endgame70.6

133Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	97	106
teleop	155	215
endgame	77	113
foul	5	0
total	334	434

Result

Final score

334 – 434

Prediction missed · off by 62.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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