Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

368.26 – 395.7

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

519 – 589

Prediction correct · off by 172 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 799.4 ±11.2

4481Team Rembrandts

A+

Season APEX 299.9Event APEX 162.58Rank 21Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9635Cyber Rabbit

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 113.99Rank 32Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2846FireBears

Season APEX 210Event APEX 91.69Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 748.1 ±8.7

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 187.73Rank 30Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

694StuyPulse

A+

Season APEX 323.3Event APEX 160.08Rank 4Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 47.89Rank 42Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4481, 9635, 2846

/ 100 compat

Projected

368.3 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 4481, 9635, 2846

Auto

83.4 22%

Teleop

231.5 61%

Endgame

64.4 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 68, 694, 8429

/ 100 compat

Projected

395.7 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 68, 694, 8429

Auto

71.1 18%

Teleop

215.5 55%

Endgame

104.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score368.3pts

Blue projected score395.7pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.4
Score range: 298–466
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 1108 vs event baseline 386.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

799.4Season APEX748.1

83.4Auto71.1

231.5Teleop215.5

64.4Endgame104.4

149Consistency177

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	98	101
teleop	248	356
endgame	173	132
foul	0	0
total	519	589

Result

Final score

519 – 589

Prediction correct · off by 172 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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