Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

457.79 – 523.67

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

483 – 482

Prediction missed · off by 33.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 798.9 ±13.5

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 105.25Rank 51Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2630Thunderbolts

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 170.86Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2905Sultans of Turkiye

Season APEX 277.2Event APEX 181.68Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 921.8 ±10.7

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 259.25Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5985Project Bucephalus

Season APEX 228.2Event APEX 52.28Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 212.14Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 70, 2630, 2905

/ 100 compat

Projected

457.8 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 70, 2630, 2905

Auto

87.4 20%

Teleop

273.2 61%

Endgame

85.3 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 1678, 5985, 4476

/ 100 compat

Projected

523.7 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 1678, 5985, 4476

Auto

85.5 17%

Teleop

289.9 57%

Endgame

130.7 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.29 · Blue 2.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score457.8pts

Blue projected score523.7pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -65.9
Score range: 388–594
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 965 vs event baseline 386.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

798.9Season APEX921.8

87.4Auto85.5

273.2Teleop289.9

85.3Endgame130.7

133Consistency119

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	171	111
teleop	238	296
endgame	74	75
foul	0	0
total	483	482

Result

Final score

483 – 482

Prediction missed · off by 33.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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