Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

421.16 – 344.05

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

230 – 482

Prediction missed · off by 164.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 688 ±9.8

3928Team Neutrino

Season APEX 227.5Event APEX 141.09Rank 48Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7426PAIR OF DICE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 285Event APEX 199.77Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 80.3Rank 61Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 725.9 ±8.1

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 15.01Rank 69Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6238Popcorn Penguins

Season APEX 285Event APEX 136.38Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2122Team Tators

Season APEX 289.6Event APEX 192.66Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3928, 7426, 2403

/ 100 compat

Projected

421.2 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 3928, 7426, 2403

Auto

84.8 21%

Teleop

208.5 51%

Endgame

116.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2811, 6238, 2122

/ 100 compat

Projected

344 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 2811, 6238, 2122

Auto

71.6 22%

Teleop

159.4 49%

Endgame

94.0 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score421.2pts

Blue projected score344pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 77.1
Score range: 274–491
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 712 vs event baseline 387.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

688Season APEX725.9

84.8Auto71.6

208.5Teleop159.4

116.4Endgame94

168Consistency205

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	102	175
teleop	72	176
endgame	56	86
foul	0	45
total	230	482

Result

Final score

230 – 482

Prediction missed · off by 164.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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