Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

477.29 – 532.11

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

480 – 441

Prediction missed · off by 46.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 718.5 ±8.1

8873Rockefeller Robotics

Season APEX 171.8Event APEX 101.77Rank 44Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 166.82Rank 14Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1640Sab-BOT-age

Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 208.7Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 852 ±15.1

263Aftershock

Season APEX 175.6Event APEX 144.22Rank 43Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3075Ha-Dream Team

Provisional

Season APEX 298.4Event APEX 110.07Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2481Roboteers

Season APEX 378Event APEX 277.82Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8873, 359, 1640

/ 100 compat

Projected

477.3 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 8873, 359, 1640

Auto

63.1 14%

Teleop

261.0 57%

Endgame

133.6 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 263, 3075, 2481

/ 100 compat

Projected

532.1 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 263, 3075, 2481

Auto

108.0 20%

Teleop

318.8 60%

Endgame

104.3 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.48 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score477.3pts

Blue projected score532.1pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -54.8
Score range: 407–602
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 921 vs event baseline 386.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

718.5Season APEX852

63.1Auto108

261Teleop318.8

133.6Endgame104.3

145Consistency149

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	100
teleop	271	217
endgame	169	114
foul	0	10
total	480	441

Result

Final score

480 – 441

Prediction missed · off by 46.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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