Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

495.21 – 204.61

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

310 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 171.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 670.3 ±8.7

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 213.3Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 119.41Rank 27Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4795Eastbots

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 162.5Rank 17Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 554.6 ±12.4

11065STEAMex Overheat

Season APEX 160.6Event APEX 55.75Rank 68Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9140The Robobots

Season APEX 237.1Event APEX 135.35Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8158Bosphorus Robotics

Season APEX 156.9Event APEX 13.51Rank 73Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4499, 343, 4795

/ 100 compat

Projected

495.2 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 4499, 343, 4795

Auto

104.7 21%

Teleop

241.3 48%

Endgame

155.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11065, 9140, 8158

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.6 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 11065, 9140, 8158

Auto

47.1 24%

Teleop

97.7 49%

Endgame

54.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.65 · Blue 0.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score495.2pts

Blue projected score204.6pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 290.6
Score range: 135–565
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 356 vs event baseline 390.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

670.3Season APEX554.6

104.7Auto47.1

241.3Teleop97.7

155.3Endgame54.3

138Consistency141

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	109	30
teleop	145	3
endgame	56	13
foul	0	0
total	310	46

Result

Final score

310 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 171.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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