Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

389.36 – 417.03

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

405 – 185

Prediction missed · off by 123.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 607.2 ±9.3

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 105.33Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7763Carrborobotics

Season APEX 123.1Event APEX 20.51Rank 65Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

287Floyd Robotics

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 263.52Rank 16Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 596.5 ±10.5

10604Demirören Robotics

Season APEX 124.4Event APEX 53.6Rank 74Record 0-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8808SWLA Tech Pirates

Season APEX 223.6Event APEX 163.45Rank 58Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 199.98Rank 11Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3637, 7763, 287

/ 100 compat

Projected

389.4 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 3637, 7763, 287

Auto

81.6 21%

Teleop

222.1 56%

Endgame

93.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10604, 8808, 201

/ 100 compat

Projected

417 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 10604, 8808, 201

Auto

67.3 16%

Teleop

233.0 57%

Endgame

108.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score389.4pts

Blue projected score417pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.7
Score range: 318–488
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 590 vs event baseline 391.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

607.2Season APEX596.5

81.6Auto67.3

222.1Teleop233

93.5Endgame108.7

140Consistency181

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	46
teleop	234	137
endgame	127	2
foul	0	0
total	405	185

Result

Final score

405 – 185

Prediction missed · off by 123.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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