Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

456.18 – 95.47

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

468 – 18

Prediction correct · off by 44.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 744.1 ±11.7

9635Cyber Rabbit

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 120.86Rank 32Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4362Gems

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 201.68Rank 36Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2601Steel Hawks

Season APEX 217.2Event APEX 133.64Rank 56Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 489.6 ±12.9

10101Critical Hit

Season APEX 156.1Event APEX 35.24Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7717Steam Punks

Season APEX 190.2Event APEX 13.57Rank 57Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 46.66Rank 66Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9635, 4362, 2601

/ 100 compat

Projected

456.2 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 9635, 4362, 2601

Auto

50.2 11%

Teleop

256.6 58%

Endgame

133.2 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10101, 7717, 7594

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.5 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 10101, 7717, 7594

Auto

30.0 33%

Teleop

65.5 72%

Endgame

-5.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.69 · Blue 0.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score456.2pts

Blue projected score95.5pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 360.7
Score range: 24–527
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 486 vs event baseline 394.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

744.1Season APEX489.6

50.2Auto30

256.6Teleop65.5

133.2Endgame-5

151Consistency147

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	7
teleop	319	6
endgame	82	5
foul	10	0
total	468	18

Result

Final score

468 – 18

Prediction correct · off by 44.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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