Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

475.29 – 364.98

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

475 – 461

Prediction correct · off by 48.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 754.3 ±13.9

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 205.65Rank 30Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7039❌⭕

Provisional

Season APEX 307.7Event APEX 165.42Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 104.22Rank 51Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 687.8 ±9.8

6989KAISER

Season APEX 217.6Event APEX 52.92Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6925W.A.Robotics

Season APEX 171.5Event APEX 75.08Rank 60Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6090Wayland Wildcats

A+

Season APEX 298.7Event APEX 236.98Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 68, 7039, 70

/ 100 compat

Projected

475.3 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 68, 7039, 70

Auto

84.1 18%

Teleop

279.4 59%

Endgame

106.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 6989, 6925, 6090

/ 100 compat

Projected

365 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 6989, 6925, 6090

Auto

54.6 15%

Teleop

185.7 51%

Endgame

122.6 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.28 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score475.3pts

Blue projected score365pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 110.3
Score range: 294–546
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 936 vs event baseline 392.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

754.3Season APEX687.8

84.1Auto54.6

279.4Teleop185.7

106.9Endgame122.6

148Consistency143

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	66
teleop	292	231
endgame	94	164
foul	5	0
total	475	461

Result

Final score

475 – 461

Prediction correct · off by 48.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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