Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

193.88 – 451.16

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

242 – 406

Prediction correct · off by 46.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 559.1 ±11.7

10950The Northern Knights

Season APEX 179.8Event APEX 39.05Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8020CyberpunK

Season APEX 157.5Event APEX 70.39Rank 55Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4421FORGE Robotics

Season APEX 221.8Event APEX 84.44Rank 45Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 808.7 ±8.7

4481Team Rembrandts

A+

Season APEX 299.9Event APEX 191.52Rank 21Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6238Popcorn Penguins

Season APEX 285Event APEX 141Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 118.64Rank 22Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10950, 8020, 4421

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.9 pts

~0.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 10950, 8020, 4421

Auto

42.0 25%

Teleop

41.6 25%

Endgame

83.9 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4481, 6238, 4270

/ 100 compat

Projected

451.2 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 4481, 6238, 4270

Auto

101.4 24%

Teleop

263.2 62%

Endgame

57.8 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.53 · Blue 2.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score193.9pts

Blue projected score451.2pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -257.3
Score range: 123–522
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 648 vs event baseline 393.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

559.1Season APEX808.7

42Auto101.4

41.6Teleop263.2

83.9Endgame57.8

156Consistency147

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	64
teleop	163	284
endgame	25	53
foul	20	5
total	242	406

Result

Final score

242 – 406

Prediction correct · off by 46.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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