Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

439.96 – 387.31

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

418 – 422

Prediction missed · off by 28.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 648 ±9.3

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 191.83Rank 20Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 75.99Rank 61Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 172.14Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 724.2 ±9.3

8873Rockefeller Robotics

Season APEX 171.8Event APEX 93.63Rank 44Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 33.37Rank 66Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 260.31Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2200, 2403, 4907

/ 100 compat

Projected

440 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 2200, 2403, 4907

Auto

93.5 23%

Teleop

173.6 42%

Endgame

145.1 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 8873, 7594, 1678

/ 100 compat

Projected

387.3 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 8873, 7594, 1678

Auto

74.3 20%

Teleop

202.1 55%

Endgame

94.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score440pts

Blue projected score387.3pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52.6
Score range: 316–511
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 840 vs event baseline 393.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

648Season APEX724.2

93.5Auto74.3

173.6Teleop202.1

145.1Endgame94

135Consistency174

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	112	73
teleop	220	263
endgame	41	81
foul	45	5
total	418	422

Result

Final score

418 – 422

Prediction missed · off by 28.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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