Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

310.26 – 572.44

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

197 – 411

Prediction correct · off by 137.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 600.6 ±12.7

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 88.21Rank 27Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 43.55Rank 69Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2630Thunderbolts

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 178.5Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 718.9 ±9.3

287Floyd Robotics

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 264.36Rank 16Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2122Team Tators

Season APEX 289.6Event APEX 225.19Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 82.89Rank 42Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 343, 2811, 2630

/ 100 compat

Projected

310.3 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 343, 2811, 2630

Auto

97.0 32%

Teleop

144.6 47%

Endgame

64.0 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 287, 2122, 8429

/ 100 compat

Projected

572.4 pts

~2.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 287, 2122, 8429

Auto

106.5 19%

Teleop

296.0 52%

Endgame

171.2 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.6 · Blue 2.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score310.3pts

Blue projected score572.4pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -262.2
Score range: 240–642
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 608 vs event baseline 388.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

600.6Season APEX718.9

97Auto106.5

144.6Teleop296

64Endgame171.2

98Consistency150

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	109
teleop	110	234
endgame	8	58
foul	0	10
total	197	411

Result

Final score

197 – 411

Prediction correct · off by 137.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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