Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

422.81 – 508.43

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

535 – 664

Prediction correct · off by 133.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 715.9 ±10.7

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 176.34Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 202.05Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11065STEAMex Overheat

Season APEX 160.6Event APEX 44.42Rank 68Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 893.6 ±9.8

1671Buchanan Bird Brains

Season APEX 267.1Event APEX 101.7Rank 37Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2481Roboteers

Season APEX 378Event APEX 240.82Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 165.91Rank 11Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 686, 4499, 11065

/ 100 compat

Projected

422.8 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 686, 4499, 11065

Auto

88.7 21%

Teleop

201.7 49%

Endgame

124.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1671, 2481, 201

/ 100 compat

Projected

508.4 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 1671, 2481, 201

Auto

98.2 19%

Teleop

302.5 60%

Endgame

107.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.17 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score422.8pts

Blue projected score508.4pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -85.6
Score range: 353–578
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1199 vs event baseline 389.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

715.9Season APEX893.6

88.7Auto98.2

201.7Teleop302.5

124.6Endgame107.1

202Consistency163

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	139	100
teleop	252	346
endgame	144	208
foul	0	10
total	535	664

Result

Final score

535 – 664

Prediction correct · off by 133.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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