Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

303.72 – 403.41

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

221 – 460

Prediction correct · off by 69.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 593 ±9.8

8020CyberpunK

Season APEX 157.5Event APEX 95.18Rank 55Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 131.34Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3245Ravens

Season APEX 194Event APEX 77.2Rank 54Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 709.8 ±8.1

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 153.56Rank 14Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 83.64Rank 51Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4795Eastbots

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 166.21Rank 17Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8020, 3637, 3245

/ 100 compat

Projected

303.7 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 8020, 3637, 3245

Auto

7.2 2%

Teleop

198.6 67%

Endgame

90.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 359, 70, 4795

/ 100 compat

Projected

403.4 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 359, 70, 4795

Auto

46.1 12%

Teleop

204.6 54%

Endgame

129.0 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score303.7pts

Blue projected score403.4pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -99.7
Score range: 234–473
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 681 vs event baseline 390.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

593Season APEX709.8

7.2Auto46.1

198.6Teleop204.6

90.4Endgame129

78Consistency154

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	83	74
teleop	96	246
endgame	37	135
foul	5	5
total	221	460

Result

Final score

221 – 460

Prediction correct · off by 69.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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