Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

400.07 – 518.35

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

433 – 431

Prediction missed · off by 60.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 676.6 ±8.7

2974Walton Robotics

Season APEX 230.2Event APEX 147.99Rank 23Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

694StuyPulse

A+

Season APEX 323.3Event APEX 223.01Rank 4Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7763Carrborobotics

Season APEX 123.1Event APEX 29.07Rank 65Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 857.8 ±11.9

2481Roboteers

Season APEX 378Event APEX 279.03Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7717Steam Punks

Season APEX 190.2Event APEX 14.51Rank 57Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2122Team Tators

Season APEX 289.6Event APEX 224.81Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2974, 694, 7763

/ 100 compat

Projected

400.1 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 2974, 694, 7763

Auto

73.1 19%

Teleop

215.3 56%

Endgame

93.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2481, 7717, 2122

/ 100 compat

Projected

518.3 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 2481, 7717, 2122

Auto

117.0 23%

Teleop

249.5 49%

Endgame

146.0 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1 · Blue 2.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score400.1pts

Blue projected score518.3pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -118.3
Score range: 326–592
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 864 vs event baseline 411.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

676.6Season APEX857.8

73.1Auto117

215.3Teleop249.5

93.9Endgame146

108Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	108	150
teleop	209	238
endgame	111	33
foul	5	10
total	433	431

Result

Final score

433 – 431

Prediction missed · off by 60.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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