Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

388.85 – 430.7

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

720 – 437

Prediction missed · off by 168.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 816.3 ±9.3

2905Sultans of Turkiye

Season APEX 277.2Event APEX 91.91Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 119.79Rank 26Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1771North Gwinnett Robotics

Season APEX 276.3Event APEX 177.15Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 601.9 ±8.7

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 211.75Rank 30Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7763Carrborobotics

Season APEX 123.1Event APEX 61.27Rank 65Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3707TechnoDogs

Season APEX 240.7Event APEX 157.68Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2905, 4915, 1771

/ 100 compat

Projected

388.9 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 2905, 4915, 1771

Auto

70.6 20%

Teleop

223.5 63%

Endgame

60.7 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 68, 7763, 3707

/ 100 compat

Projected

430.7 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 68, 7763, 3707

Auto

81.7 19%

Teleop

205.7 48%

Endgame

140.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score388.9pts

Blue projected score430.7pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.8
Score range: 319–501
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1157 vs event baseline 389.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

816.3Season APEX601.9

70.6Auto81.7

223.5Teleop205.7

60.7Endgame140.5

186Consistency173

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	143	65
teleop	447	237
endgame	125	135
foul	5	0
total	720	437

Result

Final score

720 – 437

Prediction missed · off by 168.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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