Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

397.89 – 350.15

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

543 – 325

Prediction correct · off by 85.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 722.1 ±9.3

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 66.72Rank 61Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1640Sab-BOT-age

Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 163.63Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4089Stealth Robotics

Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 167.54Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 650.8 ±11

8808SWLA Tech Pirates

Season APEX 223.6Event APEX 129.93Rank 58Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2846FireBears

Season APEX 210Event APEX 108.43Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2601Steel Hawks

Season APEX 217.2Event APEX 111.79Rank 56Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2403, 1640, 4089

/ 100 compat

Projected

397.9 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 2403, 1640, 4089

Auto

89.5 22%

Teleop

202.1 50%

Endgame

113.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8808, 2846, 2601

/ 100 compat

Projected

350.2 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 8808, 2846, 2601

Auto

31.7 10%

Teleop

236.5 71%

Endgame

62.6 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score397.9pts

Blue projected score350.2pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47.7
Score range: 280–468
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 868 vs event baseline 388.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

722.1Season APEX650.8

89.5Auto31.7

202.1Teleop236.5

113.3Endgame62.6

195Consistency144

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	104	77
teleop	283	185
endgame	141	58
foul	15	5
total	543	325

Result

Final score

543 – 325

Prediction correct · off by 85.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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