Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

293.17 – 512.82

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

295 – 414

Prediction correct · off by 50.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 588.2 ±9.3

2169KING TeC

Season APEX 117Event APEX 74.11Rank 71Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 78.88Rank 42Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 140.18Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 832.4 ±9.8

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 286.45Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4905Andromeda One

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 119.24Rank 18Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3492Putnam Area Robotics Team (P.A.R.T.s)

Season APEX 185.9Event APEX 107.13Rank 38Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2169, 8429, 4476

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.2 pts

~0.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 2169, 8429, 4476

Auto

49.5 17%

Teleop

161.3 55%

Endgame

81.3 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1678, 4905, 3492

/ 100 compat

Projected

512.8 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 1678, 4905, 3492

Auto

89.0 18%

Teleop

268.0 54%

Endgame

139.0 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.67 · Blue 2.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score293.2pts

Blue projected score512.8pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -219.7
Score range: 223–583
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 709 vs event baseline 389.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

588.2Season APEX832.4

49.5Auto89

161.3Teleop268

81.3Endgame139

150Consistency174

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	117
teleop	156	227
endgame	89	65
foul	0	5
total	295	414

Result

Final score

295 – 414

Prediction correct · off by 50.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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