Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

312.27 – 429.82

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

191 – 439

Prediction correct · off by 65.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 449.1 ±10.5

353POBots

Season APEX 169.7Event APEX 68.52Rank 33Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 53.08Rank 66Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 190.67Rank 27Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 780.1 ±14.3

3075Ha-Dream Team

Provisional

Season APEX 298.4Event APEX 145.24Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3928Team Neutrino

Season APEX 227.5Event APEX 122.43Rank 48Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 162.15Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 353, 7594, 343

/ 100 compat

Projected

312.3 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 353, 7594, 343

Auto

24.2 8%

Teleop

189.1 59%

Endgame

108.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3075, 3928, 686

/ 100 compat

Projected

429.8 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 3075, 3928, 686

Auto

81.4 19%

Teleop

249.9 57%

Endgame

104.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.9 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score312.3pts

Blue projected score429.8pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -117.5
Score range: 242–500
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 630 vs event baseline 390.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

449.1Season APEX780.1

24.2Auto81.4

189.1Teleop249.9

108.2Endgame104.2

208Consistency171

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	79
teleop	80	235
endgame	76	125
foul	0	0
total	191	439

Result

Final score

191 – 439

Prediction correct · off by 65.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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