Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

538.61 – 446.97

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

585 – 435

Prediction correct · off by 29.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 823.6 ±8.7

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 199.01Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 140.53Rank 22Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6090Wayland Wildcats

A+

Season APEX 298.7Event APEX 199.07Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 727 ±8.7

54622Paw Robotics

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 118.64Rank 46Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2122Team Tators

Season APEX 289.6Event APEX 209.83Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 118.5Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4499, 4270, 6090

/ 100 compat

Projected

538.6 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 4499, 4270, 6090

Auto

117.0 22%

Teleop

304.0 57%

Endgame

111.0 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5462, 2122, 3637

/ 100 compat

Projected

447 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 5462, 2122, 3637

Auto

90.0 21%

Teleop

217.8 50%

Endgame

130.9 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.3 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score538.6pts

Blue projected score447pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 91.6
Score range: 377–609
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1020 vs event baseline 389.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

823.6Season APEX727

117Auto90

304Teleop217.8

111Endgame130.9

154Consistency103

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	111	54
teleop	275	227
endgame	184	154
foul	15	0
total	585	435

Result

Final score

585 – 435

Prediction correct · off by 29.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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