Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

475.12 – 335.22

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

530 – 268

Prediction correct · off by 61.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 777.9 ±9.4

287Floyd Robotics

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 258.16Rank 16Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1671Buchanan Bird Brains

Season APEX 267.1Event APEX 87.57Rank 37Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 129.39Rank 14Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 680.3 ±10.7

4362Gems

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 223.5Rank 36Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5985Project Bucephalus

Season APEX 228.2Event APEX 64.67Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7250OsCODEa 0w|5

Season APEX 214.7Event APEX 47.05Rank 41Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 287, 1671, 359

/ 100 compat

Projected

475.1 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 287, 1671, 359

Auto

74.5 16%

Teleop

245.5 54%

Endgame

134.4 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4362, 5985, 7250

/ 100 compat

Projected

335.2 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 4362, 5985, 7250

Auto

29.0 9%

Teleop

188.2 57%

Endgame

115.7 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.52 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score475.1pts

Blue projected score335.2pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 139.9
Score range: 265–545
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 798 vs event baseline 389.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

777.9Season APEX680.3

74.5Auto29

245.5Teleop188.2

134.4Endgame115.7

140Consistency148

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	26
teleop	301	181
endgame	160	61
foul	0	0
total	530	268

Result

Final score

530 – 268

Prediction correct · off by 61.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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