Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

465.43 – 527.19

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

544 – 537

Prediction missed · off by 44.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 680.1 ±9.3

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 195.25Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 173.07Rank 30Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8020CyberpunK

Season APEX 157.5Event APEX 97.11Rank 55Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 777.6 ±8.7

9140The Robobots

Season APEX 237.1Event APEX 133.86Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1640Sab-BOT-age

Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 182.18Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 211.15Rank 20Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4476, 68, 8020

/ 100 compat

Projected

465.4 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 4476, 68, 8020

Auto

79.8 17%

Teleop

249.1 54%

Endgame

131.8 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9140, 1640, 2200

/ 100 compat

Projected

527.2 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 9140, 1640, 2200

Auto

102.3 20%

Teleop

285.7 56%

Endgame

120.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.29 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score465.4pts

Blue projected score527.2pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -61.8
Score range: 391–601
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 1081 vs event baseline 411.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

680.1Season APEX777.6

79.8Auto102.3

249.1Teleop285.7

131.8Endgame120.7

136Consistency142

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	100
teleop	331	317
endgame	153	95
foul	5	25
total	544	537

Result

Final score

544 – 537

Prediction missed · off by 44.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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