Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

489.42 – 352.36

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

673 – 284

Prediction correct · off by 126 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 843.3 ±13.1

2630Thunderbolts

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 155.39Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2974Walton Robotics

Season APEX 230.2Event APEX 160.94Rank 23Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4481Team Rembrandts

A+

Season APEX 299.9Event APEX 173.09Rank 21Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 604.3 ±11.2

4122Ossining OBOTS

Season APEX 233.2Event APEX 81.28Rank 49Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 209.31Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11065STEAMex Overheat

Season APEX 160.6Event APEX 61.77Rank 68Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2630, 2974, 4481

/ 100 compat

Projected

489.4 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 2630, 2974, 4481

Auto

124.8 26%

Teleop

249.0 52%

Endgame

102.7 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4122, 4907, 11065

/ 100 compat

Projected

352.4 pts

~0.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 4122, 4907, 11065

Auto

57.2 18%

Teleop

169.5 54%

Endgame

86.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.54 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score489.4pts

Blue projected score352.4pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 137.1
Score range: 282–559
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 957 vs event baseline 387.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

843.3Season APEX604.3

124.8Auto57.2

249Teleop169.5

102.7Endgame86.3

186Consistency189

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	127	65
teleop	410	96
endgame	131	108
foul	5	15
total	673	284

Result

Final score

673 – 284

Prediction correct · off by 126 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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