Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

276.05 – 434.78

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

364 – 459

Prediction correct · off by 56.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 734.9 ±11.7

4421FORGE Robotics

Season APEX 221.8Event APEX 61.59Rank 45Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8808SWLA Tech Pirates

Season APEX 223.6Event APEX 89.15Rank 58Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9635Cyber Rabbit

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 125.31Rank 32Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 667.5 ±9.3

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 183.96Rank 27Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 132.39Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2905Sultans of Turkiye

Season APEX 277.2Event APEX 118.43Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4421, 8808, 9635

/ 100 compat

Projected

276.1 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 4421, 8808, 9635

Auto

61.5 24%

Teleop

175.5 67%

Endgame

23.3 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 343, 686, 2905

/ 100 compat

Projected

434.8 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 343, 686, 2905

Auto

78.3 18%

Teleop

235.8 55%

Endgame

114.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.94 · Blue 2.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score276.1pts

Blue projected score434.8pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -158.7
Score range: 205–506
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 823 vs event baseline 392.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

734.9Season APEX667.5

61.5Auto78.3

175.5Teleop235.8

23.3Endgame114.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	36
teleop	188	282
endgame	87	141
foul	15	0
total	364	459

Result

Final score

364 – 459

Prediction correct · off by 56.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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