Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

341.52 – 477.52

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

469 – 467

Prediction missed · off by 69 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 780 ±9.3

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 165.8Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 89.43Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4905Andromeda One

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 86.29Rank 18Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 830.8 ±8.1

6238Popcorn Penguins

Season APEX 285Event APEX 185.58Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6002ZooBOTix

Season APEX 267.3Event APEX 178.66Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1640Sab-BOT-age

Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 113.28Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4499, 3637, 4905

/ 100 compat

Projected

341.5 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 4499, 3637, 4905

Auto

89.1 27%

Teleop

202.7 61%

Endgame

42.8 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6238, 6002, 1640

/ 100 compat

Projected

477.5 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 6238, 6002, 1640

Auto

130.7 29%

Teleop

242.7 54%

Endgame

78.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.04 · Blue 2.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score341.5pts

Blue projected score477.5pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -136
Score range: 271–549
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 936 vs event baseline 393.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

780Season APEX830.8

89.1Auto130.7

202.7Teleop242.7

42.8Endgame78.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	114	119
teleop	247	221
endgame	108	112
foul	0	15
total	469	467

Result

Final score

469 – 467

Prediction missed · off by 69 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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