Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

272.59 – 237.52

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

464 – 269

Prediction correct · off by 111.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 630 ±9.8

2846FireBears

Season APEX 210Event APEX 80.12Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 130.46Rank 11Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6925W.A.Robotics

Season APEX 171.5Event APEX 62.01Rank 60Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 599 ±11.7

5985Project Bucephalus

Season APEX 228.2Event APEX 69.69Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3928Team Neutrino

Season APEX 227.5Event APEX 123.91Rank 48Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 43.92Rank 66Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2846, 201, 6925

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.6 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 2846, 201, 6925

Auto

54.1 21%

Teleop

130.2 49%

Endgame

78.8 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5985, 3928, 7594

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.5 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 5985, 3928, 7594

Auto

77.0 33%

Teleop

123.7 52%

Endgame

35.0 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score272.6pts

Blue projected score237.5pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.1
Score range: 167–344
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 733 vs event baseline 394.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

630Season APEX599

54.1Auto77

130.2Teleop123.7

78.8Endgame35

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	24
teleop	272	157
endgame	129	83
foul	0	5
total	464	269

Result

Final score

464 – 269

Prediction correct · off by 111.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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