Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

475.29 – 331.37

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

741 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 234 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 847.6 ±9.3

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 215.39Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

287Floyd Robotics

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 179.3Rank 16Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

54622Paw Robotics

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 80.6Rank 46Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 471.5 ±11.7

8020CyberpunK

Season APEX 157.5Event APEX 171Rank 55Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3419RoHawks

Season APEX 153.4Event APEX 58.68Rank 67Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11065STEAMex Overheat

Season APEX 160.6Event APEX 101.69Rank 68Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1678, 287, 5462

/ 100 compat

Projected

475.3 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 1678, 287, 5462

Auto

57.7 12%

Teleop

259.1 56%

Endgame

147.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8020, 3419, 11065

/ 100 compat

Projected

331.4 pts

~0.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 8020, 3419, 11065

Auto

24.0 7%

Teleop

212.0 66%

Endgame

87.5 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.54 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score475.3pts

Blue projected score331.4pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 143.9
Score range: 260–546
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 870 vs event baseline 392.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

847.6Season APEX471.5

57.7Auto24

259.1Teleop212

147.3Endgame87.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	146	21
teleop	416	84
endgame	174	24
foul	5	0
total	741	129

Result

Final score

741 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 234 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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