Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

249.8 – 294.14

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

519 – 579

Prediction correct · off by 277 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 771.7 ±13.9

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 46.56Rank 26Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3075Ha-Dream Team

Provisional

Season APEX 298.4Event APEX 73.76Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 129.48Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 721 ±9.3

4362Gems

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 128.62Rank 36Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2122Team Tators

Season APEX 289.6Event APEX 134.46Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3245Ravens

Season APEX 194Event APEX 31.06Rank 54Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4915, 3075, 4907

/ 100 compat

Projected

249.8 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 4915, 3075, 4907

Auto

54.6 23%

Teleop

144.9 60%

Endgame

40.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4362, 2122, 3245

/ 100 compat

Projected

294.1 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 4362, 2122, 3245

Auto

65.5 22%

Teleop

185.5 63%

Endgame

45.5 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score249.8pts

Blue projected score294.1pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44.3
Score range: 180–364
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 1098 vs event baseline 387.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

771.7Season APEX721

54.6Auto65.5

144.9Teleop185.5

40.3Endgame45.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	122	45
teleop	276	327
endgame	101	207
foul	20	0
total	519	579

Result

Final score

519 – 579

Prediction correct · off by 277 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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