Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

379.37 – 415.83

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

320 – 464

Prediction correct · off by 53.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 636.5 ±8.7

6090Wayland Wildcats

A+

Season APEX 298.7Event APEX 189.18Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7763Carrborobotics

Season APEX 123.1Event APEX 94.36Rank 65Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7250OsCODEa 0w|5

Season APEX 214.7Event APEX 95.83Rank 41Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 818.4 ±13.1

4089Stealth Robotics

Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 153.67Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9140The Robobots

Season APEX 237.1Event APEX 119.81Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2630Thunderbolts

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 142.35Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6090, 7763, 7250

/ 100 compat

Projected

379.4 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 6090, 7763, 7250

Auto

85.6 22%

Teleop

235.7 61%

Endgame

62.6 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4089, 9140, 2630

/ 100 compat

Projected

415.8 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 4089, 9140, 2630

Auto

114.3 29%

Teleop

262.3 66%

Endgame

23.7 6%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.37 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score379.4pts

Blue projected score415.8pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.5
Score range: 309–486
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 784 vs event baseline 387.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

636.5Season APEX818.4

85.6Auto114.3

235.7Teleop262.3

62.6Endgame23.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	115
teleop	181	294
endgame	82	55
foul	0	0
total	320	464

Result

Final score

320 – 464

Prediction correct · off by 53.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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