Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

239.77 – 447.39

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

382 – 301

Prediction missed · off by 144.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 599.9 ±10.7

10101Critical Hit

Season APEX 156.1Event APEX 23.6Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

263Aftershock

Season APEX 175.6Event APEX 94.81Rank 43Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 121.36Rank 14Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 610.9 ±10.7

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 200.59Rank 22Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8158Bosphorus Robotics

Season APEX 156.9Event APEX 40.65Rank 73Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2974Walton Robotics

Season APEX 230.2Event APEX 206.15Rank 23Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10101, 263, 359

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.8 pts

~0.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 10101, 263, 359

Auto

15.5 7%

Teleop

161.7 74%

Endgame

40.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4270, 8158, 2974

/ 100 compat

Projected

447.4 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 4270, 8158, 2974

Auto

79.3 18%

Teleop

248.6 55%

Endgame

120.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.77 · Blue 2.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score239.8pts

Blue projected score447.4pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -207.6
Score range: 170–517
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 683 vs event baseline 389.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

599.9Season APEX610.9

15.5Auto79.3

161.7Teleop248.6

40.4Endgame120.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	44
teleop	226	135
endgame	91	102
foul	20	20
total	382	301

Result

Final score

382 – 301

Prediction missed · off by 144.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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