Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

369.05 – 398.06

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

448 – 282

Prediction missed · off by 97.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 764.2 ±10.7

10950The Northern Knights

Season APEX 179.8Event APEX 73.19Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 137.54Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4481Team Rembrandts

A+

Season APEX 299.9Event APEX 158.32Rank 21Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 574.2 ±10

7457suPURDUEper Robotics

Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 208.23Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 121.53Rank 61Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10604Demirören Robotics

Season APEX 124.4Event APEX 68.3Rank 74Record 0-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10950, 4476, 4481

/ 100 compat

Projected

369 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 10950, 4476, 4481

Auto

59.5 17%

Teleop

193.9 56%

Endgame

95.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7457, 2403, 10604

/ 100 compat

Projected

398.1 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 7457, 2403, 10604

Auto

55.7 14%

Teleop

211.1 54%

Endgame

124.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score369pts

Blue projected score398.1pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29
Score range: 300–467
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 730 vs event baseline 384.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

764.2Season APEX574.2

59.5Auto55.7

193.9Teleop211.1

95.7Endgame124

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	75
teleop	261	115
endgame	105	92
foul	5	0
total	448	282

Result

Final score

448 – 282

Prediction missed · off by 97.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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