Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

272.72 – 260.54

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

303 – 503

Prediction missed · off by 136.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 677.5 ±9.8

4421FORGE Robotics

Season APEX 221.8Event APEX 46.15Rank 45Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6989KAISER

Season APEX 217.6Event APEX 86.8Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 139.77Rank 30Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 777.1 ±9.3

3928Team Neutrino

Season APEX 227.5Event APEX 53.35Rank 48Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 91Rank 11Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 116.19Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4421, 6989, 68

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.7 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 4421, 6989, 68

Auto

35.9 13%

Teleop

154.4 55%

Endgame

89.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3928, 201, 4499

/ 100 compat

Projected

260.5 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 3928, 201, 4499

Auto

82.9 32%

Teleop

130.4 50%

Endgame

47.0 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score272.7pts

Blue projected score260.5pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.2
Score range: 191–343
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 806 vs event baseline 386.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

677.5Season APEX777.1

35.9Auto82.9

154.4Teleop130.4

89Endgame47

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	113
teleop	135	284
endgame	77	101
foul	5	5
total	303	503

Result

Final score

303 – 503

Prediction missed · off by 136.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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