Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

155.36 – 296.53

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

218 – 406

Prediction correct · off by 86.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 494.8 ±9.8

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 39.94Rank 66Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 54.15Rank 51Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2333Sapulpa Robotics Team

Season APEX 143Event APEX 61.27Rank 70Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 669.2 ±11.2

11065STEAMex Overheat

Season APEX 160.6Event APEX 98.82Rank 68Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8808SWLA Tech Pirates

Season APEX 223.6Event APEX 61.68Rank 58Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6238Popcorn Penguins

Season APEX 285Event APEX 136.03Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7594, 70, 2333

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.4 pts

~0.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 7594, 70, 2333

Auto

54.3 34%

Teleop

85.9 54%

Endgame

18.0 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11065, 8808, 6238

/ 100 compat

Projected

296.5 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 11065, 8808, 6238

Auto

43.0 15%

Teleop

171.6 58%

Endgame

79.6 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.71 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score155.4pts

Blue projected score296.5pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -141.2
Score range: 85–367
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 624 vs event baseline 390.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

494.8Season APEX669.2

54.3Auto43

85.9Teleop171.6

18Endgame79.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	91
teleop	120	220
endgame	52	50
foul	5	45
total	218	406

Result

Final score

218 – 406

Prediction correct · off by 86.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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