Qualification · Qualification 22
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
273.54 – 235.93
61%39%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
218 – 509
Prediction missed · off by 164.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 610 ±11.2
Season APEX 228.2Event APEX 110.49Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 171.8Event APEX 36.56Rank 44Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 210Event APEX 126.49Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 678.3 ±9.3
Season APEX 160.5Event APEX 92.29Rank 50Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 276.3Event APEX 98.12Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 45.52Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5985, 8873, 2846
59
/ 100 compatProjected
273.5 pts
~1.9 RP (championship)
Teams: 5985, 8873, 2846
Auto
71.7 26%
Teleop
127.2 46%
Endgame
75.4 27%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 51%
Supercharged: 11%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3277, 1771, 3637
49
/ 100 compatProjected
235.9 pts
~1.5 RP (championship)
Teams: 3277, 1771, 3637
Auto
53.0 23%
Teleop
148.6 66%
Endgame
24.5 11%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 51%
Supercharged: 11%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.51
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score273.5pts
Blue projected score235.9pts
Red win probability61%
Event bonus sample278alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 51%, blue 55%
Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 17%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 37.6
- Score range
- 166–344
- Upset likelihood
- 39%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
610Season APEX678.3
71.7Auto53
127.2Teleop148.6
75.4Endgame24.5
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 43 | 80 |
| teleop | 117 | 262 |
| endgame | 53 | 157 |
| foul | 5 | 10 |
| total | 218 | 509 |
Result
Final score
218 – 509
Prediction missed · off by 164.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
first-unavailable
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