Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

279.28 – 186.67

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

283 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 6.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 586.2 ±9.9

54622Paw Robotics

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 65.16Rank 46Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7250OsCODEa 0w|5

Season APEX 214.7Event APEX 114.34Rank 41Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

263Aftershock

Season APEX 175.6Event APEX 99.78Rank 43Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 516.8 ±9.4

3245Ravens

Season APEX 194Event APEX 61Rank 54Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6925W.A.Robotics

Season APEX 171.5Event APEX 60.51Rank 60Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 65.16Rank 69Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5462, 7250, 263

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.3 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 5462, 7250, 263

Auto

39.2 14%

Teleop

154.7 55%

Endgame

87.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3245, 6925, 2811

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.7 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 3245, 6925, 2811

Auto

24.5 14%

Teleop

95.4 53%

Endgame

58.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.16 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score279.3pts

Blue projected score186.7pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 92.6
Score range: 116–350
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 460 vs event baseline 396.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

586.2Season APEX516.8

39.2Auto24.5

154.7Teleop95.4

87.3Endgame58.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	33
teleop	160	98
endgame	89	41
foul	0	5
total	283	177

Result

Final score

283 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 6.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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