Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

304.16 – 274.64

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

341 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 43.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 597.8 ±10.5

6989KAISER

Season APEX 217.6Event APEX 81.01Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

353POBots

Season APEX 169.7Event APEX 100.03Rank 33Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 123.12Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 664.7 ±10.5

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 111.25Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1671Buchanan Bird Brains

Season APEX 267.1Event APEX 123.91Rank 37Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10101Critical Hit

Season APEX 156.1Event APEX 39.48Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6989, 353, 4907

/ 100 compat

Projected

304.2 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 6989, 353, 4907

Auto

98.6 33%

Teleop

108.7 36%

Endgame

93.4 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3637, 1671, 10101

/ 100 compat

Projected

274.6 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 3637, 1671, 10101

Auto

28.0 10%

Teleop

154.8 58%

Endgame

84.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score304.2pts

Blue projected score274.6pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.5
Score range: 201–378
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 566 vs event baseline 411.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

597.8Season APEX664.7

98.6Auto28

108.7Teleop154.8

93.4Endgame84

154Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	18
teleop	155	165
endgame	129	37
foul	0	5
total	341	225

Result

Final score

341 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 43.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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