Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

338 – 258.82

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

549 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 137.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 894.5 ±9.5

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 164.94Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2601Steel Hawks

Season APEX 217.2Event APEX 107.06Rank 56Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 66Rank 14Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 555.6 ±9.9

7763Carrborobotics

Season APEX 123.1Event APEX 78.73Rank 65Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

353POBots

Season APEX 169.7Event APEX 87.23Rank 33Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 92.86Rank 26Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1678, 2601, 359

/ 100 compat

Projected

338 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 1678, 2601, 359

Auto

61.4 18%

Teleop

201.5 59%

Endgame

76.3 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7763, 353, 4915

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.8 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 7763, 353, 4915

Auto

44.9 17%

Teleop

141.4 54%

Endgame

77.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.26 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score338pts

Blue projected score258.8pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 79.2
Score range: 187–410
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 743 vs event baseline 397.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

894.5Season APEX555.6

61.4Auto44.9

201.5Teleop141.4

76.3Endgame77.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	50
teleop	311	132
endgame	124	2
foul	60	10
total	549	194

Result

Final score

549 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 137.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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