Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

230.46 – 357.69

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

291 – 369

Prediction correct · off by 35.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 572.3 ±10.5

3707TechnoDogs

Season APEX 240.7Event APEX 75.6Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10101Critical Hit

Season APEX 156.1Event APEX 55.36Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 99.5Rank 61Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 678 ±8.7

9140The Robobots

Season APEX 237.1Event APEX 156.15Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 66.57Rank 42Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 134.97Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3707, 10101, 2403

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.5 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 3707, 10101, 2403

Auto

33.5 14%

Teleop

150.9 64%

Endgame

52.7 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9140, 8429, 686

/ 100 compat

Projected

357.7 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 9140, 8429, 686

Auto

62.4 18%

Teleop

229.2 65%

Endgame

61.2 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.88 · Blue 2.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score230.5pts

Blue projected score357.7pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -127.2
Score range: 159–429
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 660 vs event baseline 394.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

572.3Season APEX678

33.5Auto62.4

150.9Teleop229.2

52.7Endgame61.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	100
teleop	155	171
endgame	94	98
foul	5	0
total	291	369

Result

Final score

291 – 369

Prediction correct · off by 35.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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