Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

398.51 – 381.43

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

373 – 468

Prediction missed · off by 56 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 642.5 ±9.3

3492Putnam Area Robotics Team (P.A.R.T.s)

Season APEX 185.9Event APEX 132.86Rank 38Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7890SeQuEnCe

Season APEX 178.1Event APEX 112.22Rank 52Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1640Sab-BOT-age

Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 153.43Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 831.4 ±17

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 97.43Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2630Thunderbolts

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 108.86Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7039❌⭕

Provisional

Season APEX 307.7Event APEX 175.14Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3492, 7890, 1640

/ 100 compat

Projected

398.5 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 3492, 7890, 1640

Auto

70.0 18%

Teleop

227.1 58%

Endgame

94.5 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4907, 2630, 7039

/ 100 compat

Projected

381.4 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 4907, 2630, 7039

Auto

70.6 19%

Teleop

202.3 53%

Endgame

105.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score398.5pts

Blue projected score381.4pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 6%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.1
Score range: 312–468
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 841 vs event baseline 384.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

642.5Season APEX831.4

70Auto70.6

227.1Teleop202.3

94.5Endgame105.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	130
teleop	135	228
endgame	162	75
foul	5	35
total	373	468

Result

Final score

373 – 468

Prediction missed · off by 56 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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