Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

333.92 – 258.13

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

253 – 295

Prediction missed · off by 58.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 739.8 ±15.3

8158Bosphorus Robotics

Season APEX 156.9Event APEX 84.57Rank 73Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 145.64Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3075Ha-Dream Team

Provisional

Season APEX 298.4Event APEX 103.71Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 736.3 ±11.2

10950The Northern Knights

Season APEX 179.8Event APEX 84.57Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4122Ossining OBOTS

Season APEX 233.2Event APEX 79.71Rank 49Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

694StuyPulse

A+

Season APEX 323.3Event APEX 93.85Rank 4Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8158, 4476, 3075

/ 100 compat

Projected

333.9 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 8158, 4476, 3075

Auto

50.1 15%

Teleop

194.4 59%

Endgame

86.4 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10950, 4122, 694

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.1 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 10950, 4122, 694

Auto

56.2 22%

Teleop

128.4 50%

Endgame

71.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score333.9pts

Blue projected score258.1pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 75.8
Score range: 187–405
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 548 vs event baseline 392.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

739.8Season APEX736.3

50.1Auto56.2

194.4Teleop128.4

86.4Endgame71.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	29
teleop	132	108
endgame	65	108
foul	0	50
total	253	295

Result

Final score

253 – 295

Prediction missed · off by 58.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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