Qualification · Qualification 124

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

520.8 – 143.1

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

628 – 206

Prediction correct · off by 85.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 785.9 ±8.1

1640Sab-BOT-age

Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 177.91Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4795Eastbots

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 117.8Rank 17Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7457suPURDUEper Robotics

Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 225.09Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 509.8 ±11.2

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 47.51Rank 66Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10950The Northern Knights

Season APEX 179.8Event APEX -1.51Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 97.1Rank 42Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1640, 4795, 7457

/ 100 compat

Projected

520.8 pts

~2.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 1640, 4795, 7457

Auto

88.0 17%

Teleop

292.8 57%

Endgame

130.9 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7594, 10950, 8429

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.1 pts

~0.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 7594, 10950, 8429

Auto

37.7 28%

Teleop

39.9 30%

Endgame

56.4 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.89 · Blue 0.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score520.8pts

Blue projected score143.1pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 377.7
Score range: 73–591
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 834 vs event baseline 390.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

785.9Season APEX509.8

88Auto37.7

292.8Teleop39.9

130.9Endgame56.4

132Consistency147

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	97	14
teleop	366	124
endgame	140	68
foul	25	0
total	628	206

Result

Final score

628 – 206

Prediction correct · off by 85.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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