Qualification · Qualification 123

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

219.73 – 465.33

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

209 – 281

Prediction correct · off by 97.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 549.3 ±10.2

4362Gems

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 152.35Rank 36Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 31.98Rank 69Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11065STEAMex Overheat

Season APEX 160.6Event APEX 35.4Rank 68Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 778.3 ±9.8

6989KAISER

Season APEX 217.6Event APEX 97.99Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4905Andromeda One

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 135.81Rank 18Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

694StuyPulse

A+

Season APEX 323.3Event APEX 231.53Rank 4Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4362, 2811, 11065

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.7 pts

~0.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 4362, 2811, 11065

Auto

52.2 24%

Teleop

101.5 47%

Endgame

62.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6989, 4905, 694

/ 100 compat

Projected

465.3 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 6989, 4905, 694

Auto

86.7 19%

Teleop

267.1 58%

Endgame

104.1 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.53 · Blue 2.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score219.7pts

Blue projected score465.3pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -245.6
Score range: 149–536
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 490 vs event baseline 391.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

549.3Season APEX778.3

52.2Auto86.7

101.5Teleop267.1

62.6Endgame104.1

97Consistency148

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	76
teleop	110	157
endgame	42	48
foul	0	0
total	209	281

Result

Final score

209 – 281

Prediction correct · off by 97.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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