Qualification · Qualification 121

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

377.43 – 445.34

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

469 – 435

Prediction missed · off by 51 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 739.5 ±10.7

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 173.86Rank 11Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 164.75Rank 26Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5985Project Bucephalus

Season APEX 228.2Event APEX 38.82Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 770.4 ±10.7

7426PAIR OF DICE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 285Event APEX 200.42Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

54622Paw Robotics

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 126.37Rank 46Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9635Cyber Rabbit

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 118.55Rank 32Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 201, 4915, 5985

/ 100 compat

Projected

377.4 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 201, 4915, 5985

Auto

72.5 19%

Teleop

239.0 63%

Endgame

65.7 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7426, 5462, 9635

/ 100 compat

Projected

445.3 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 7426, 5462, 9635

Auto

81.4 18%

Teleop

225.3 51%

Endgame

136.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.21 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score377.4pts

Blue projected score445.3pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -67.9
Score range: 307–515
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 904 vs event baseline 391.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

739.5Season APEX770.4

72.5Auto81.4

239Teleop225.3

65.7Endgame136.1

82Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	93	59
teleop	279	239
endgame	92	117
foul	5	20
total	469	435

Result

Final score

469 – 435

Prediction missed · off by 51 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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