Qualification · Qualification 120

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

255.03 – 408.54

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

307 – 354

Prediction correct · off by 53.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 591 ±14.4

10604Demirören Robotics

Season APEX 124.4Event APEX 20.49Rank 74Record 0-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2630Thunderbolts

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 171.76Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3419RoHawks

Season APEX 153.4Event APEX 62.78Rank 67Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 717.1 ±9.3

6238Popcorn Penguins

Season APEX 285Event APEX 151.65Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 175.19Rank 30Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3245Ravens

Season APEX 194Event APEX 81.7Rank 54Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10604, 2630, 3419

/ 100 compat

Projected

255 pts

~0.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 10604, 2630, 3419

Auto

64.9 26%

Teleop

146.4 58%

Endgame

40.3 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 6238, 68, 3245

/ 100 compat

Projected

408.5 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 6238, 68, 3245

Auto

92.6 24%

Teleop

225.5 58%

Endgame

72.3 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.74 · Blue 2.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score255pts

Blue projected score408.5pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -153.5
Score range: 184–480
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 661 vs event baseline 391.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

591Season APEX717.1

64.9Auto92.6

146.4Teleop225.5

40.3Endgame72.3

122Consistency126

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	74
teleop	162	149
endgame	63	81
foul	0	50
total	307	354

Result

Final score

307 – 354

Prediction correct · off by 53.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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